Thursday, March 13, 2008

Savers of the World, Unite!

The Fed is at it again, pumping another $200 billion into the nation's supply of liquidity in an effort to undo the housing mess and credit crunch that it created. It is doubtful this will have much of an impact on the housing market except to delay the inevitable write-offs and losses that are still to come in that sector.
But it is likely that the Fed is sowing the seeds of further inflation. Pumping liquidity into the system to fix what is primarily a sector problem (excess supply and weak demand in the housing sector) never has made sense, and still doesn't. The Fed tried that in the 1970s when oil first zoomed in price and all we got was stagflation. It is beginning to look as if we may have a repeat of that era. Is it any wonder that the price of oil has gotten so high today (over $110) as the dollar has slumped to record lows?
There is no doubt that the Fed's current policies are anathema to anyone in our economy with savings. The combination of low interest rates (banks seem to be playing a game of how low can you go with the interest rates that they pay) and accelerating price increases means negative returns for anyone with money in the bank. In addition, the faltering stock market eats away at people's retirement accounts, many of whom are Baby Boomers who might like to retire soon. Where's the incentive to save in such an environment?
It might be argued that savers need to tolerate lower returns for a while for the greater good: improving the economy's performance. I could accept that argument if the Fed were actually trying to do that; but its current mix of policies seem unlikely to improve anything.

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